Dot Earth Blog: Lessons from Sandy, a brewing superstorm

Oct. 27, 11:36 p.m. | Updated |
Federal weather forecasters don?t like to overstate things. So even when they say things that are utterly chilling, they say it this way:

?THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)?

That?s an excerpt from the latest extended forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the superstorm that nearly all computer simulations see developing in a few days as the remains of Hurricane Sandy ? which has already killed at least 21 people in the Caribbean ? collide over the East Coast with a cold front sweeping in from the west. (Here?s an interactive map of the storm track.)

I can?t possibly track all the details, given the breadth of my beat (and I will be busy battening down given how other recent flooding storms have affected my part of the Hudson Valley.)

But I can point you to some great guides, if you live in the affected region: There are others, but I find particular value in the analysis offered by Brian McNoldy and Jason Samenow of the Washington Post?s Capital Weather Gang (Samenow led me to that forecast above), as well as?Andrew Freedman at Climate Central and Eric Holthaus of The Wall Street Journal.

This is also a good time to pause and consider the astonishing power of the forecasting tools and intellectual capacity that the United States and Europe have invested in in recent decades ? and the importance of sustaining and expanding the human capacity to observe and understand this turbulent, fast-changing planet.

Given our tendency toward short-termism, it?s always a tough sell, whether in Congress or a town council ? to push for investing in infrastructure ? whether it?s better supercomputers and new satellites or flood-worthy roads. But it?s worth pushing.

While I hope the long lead time in this forecast demonstrates the merits of such unsexy investments, the value is only there if people respond effectively to improving warnings. Given how communities often fail to get out of harm?s way, particularly in how and where they build (see Nicholas Pinter here), that means there?s plenty of work to do on better communication and education, as well.

2:33 p.m. |Update

I hope you?ll read and pass around this article by John Cushman: ?Aging Satellite Fleet May Mean Gaps in Storm Forecasts.?

Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/lessons-from-sandy-a-brewing-superstorm/?partner=rss&emc=rss

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